Spotting The Wisdom In The Crowds
نویسنده
چکیده
The growing popularity of websites on which hundreds of “tipsters” provide sporting tips has resulted in a large influx of sports betting advice in the public domain. But how do we know which of these tips are “reliable” and which should not be trusted? How do we spot the wisdom which may be hiding in the crowds? The aim of this project is to investigate to what extent it is possible to extract such reliable advice from a large group of tipsters by observing the historical betting patterns of the population. Previous research into the performance of sporting tipsters has been limited to much smaller population sizes, for example those with regular newspaper columns. We consider a simulated world, which is used to investigate a variety of potential scenarios regarding the behaviour of the tipsters in the population. In this controlled environment, we are able to develop and validate methods for detecting and extracting the wisdom. We then look at a particular real world tipping website which considers only the tennis win market. Applying the techniques developed whilst investigating the simulated world, we find that although high precision rates are achievable, it is much more of a challenge to obtain a significant positive return on investment. Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. William Knottenbelt for his support and guidance over the course of the project, as well as his level-headedness on the numerous occasions I exclaimed “I’ve cracked it, we’re rich!” only to find out that something was amiss. Thanks also go to the staff at Active Capital Management, whose initial ideas and suggestions helped to give the project the kick start it needed. Finally I would like to thank my friends and especially my family for their patience and support these past four years and without whom I would not be where I am today.
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تاریخ انتشار 2012